- Title:
- Estimating the effect of transitory economic shocks on civil conflict
- Author:
- Antonio Ciccone
- Date:
- June 2011
- Abstract:
- This note tries to clarify some remaining issues in the debate on the effect of income shocks on
civil conflict. Section 1 discusses the discrepant findings on the effect of rainfall shocks on
civil conflict in Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011) and Ciccone (2011). Section 2 develops an
instrumental variables approach to estimate the effect of transitory (rainfall-driven) income
shocks on civil conflict and contrasts the conclusions with those of Miguel, Satyanath, and
Sergenti (2004) and Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011). Throughout, the note uses the data of
Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti to focus on the methodological issues at the core of the debate
(for results using the latest data see Ciccone, 2011).
- Area of Research:
- Macroeconomics and International Economics
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